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Hi everyone,

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and welcome to the Texas Water Development
Board's latest Water and Weather report.

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I'm Dr.

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Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface
Water Division here at the agency.

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And today,

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we'll be taking a look at conditions
for our state at the end of September.

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Let's take a look at some of the big water
and weather headlines.

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Statewide, September 2026
was drier than normal and set the record

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for the hottest September in data
going back to 1895.

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Near the end of September, 92
percent of the state was in drought,

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up 13 percentage points
since the beginning of the month.

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Storage in our water supply reservoirs

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ended the month at 71.2
percent of capacity, down 3 percentage

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points during the month
and leaving us more than 8

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percentage points below normal
for this time of year.

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Through the end of December,
conditions are expected to improve across

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the state, cutting drought area
significantly by the end of the year.

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Let's take a closer
look at temperature and precipitation.

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On these maps,

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we're looking at both parameters relative
to 21st century averages for September.

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From a water supply perspective, reds,
oranges, and yellows mean trouble on

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both maps.

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They show areas
with above-average temperature on the left

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and below-average
precipitation on the right.

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Statewide,
the average temperature for September

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2026 was 84.1° Fahrenheit.

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That set the record for the warmest
September in data going back to 1895,

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breaking the previous record set in 2023
by more than two degrees.

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Across the state, precipitation
for September 2026

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was about 60 percent of normal.

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Monsoon flow from the Pacific
brought above-average

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precipitation to large portions
of the Panhandle and West Texas,

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and remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard
did the same for part of East Texas.

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Much of the rest of the state
got less than half their normal rainfall

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for the month.

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Overall, drought expanded

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13 percentage points during September
and covered 92 percent of the state

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near the end of the month––the tan,
orange, and red areas on this map.

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That's the largest extent of drought
within the state in four years.

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The most severely impacted areas
were clustered in the Panhandle and near

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the Red River Valley in the north,
and the lower coast in the south.

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September conditions
also led to a three-percentage-point

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decline in statewide surface
water supplies during the month.

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On this chart,

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the dark line shows statewide storage
this year compared to minimum, maximum,

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and median values for the day of the year
from data going back to 1990.

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Also displayed are lighter lines
that show how we did in 2025 and 2024,

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and a red line
that shows how we did in 2011.

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At the end of September 2026, surface
water supplies

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were more than eight percentage points
below normal for the time of year.

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What can we expect going forward?

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Through the end of December,

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the National Weather Service is predicting
drought improvement across the state.

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For about half the state

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those improvements are expected
to be enough to eliminate drought.

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For the rest of the state
more improvements will be needed in 2027

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before they transition
completely out of drought,

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but there is good reason to expect
that to happen.

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El Niño conditions––warmer-than-normal sea

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surface temperatures
in the eastern equatorial Pacific––are

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in place and expected to persist
well into next year.

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El Niño winters typically
bring Texas cooler and wetter conditions,

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which would be ideal for further
drought contraction in our state

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during at least the first few months
of the new year.

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That concludes our report.

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Until next time,
I hope you all stay healthy and safe.