[Mark Wentzel] Is drought something we'll
always be contending with?
And in Texas, the answer is pretty much "yes."
We did get a lot of snow, at least for Texas,
in February.
That didn't help much, however, since snow is mostly air.
It takes 10 to 12 inches or more of fresh snow
to provide one inch of moisture.
Most of the state still had below-average precipitation
in February, leading to an increase in the area of the state
impacted by drought.
Spring's pretty crucial for us for drought statewide.
Our big months for precipitation, on a normal basis,
would be April, May, and June.
And so, if we get average rainfall in April, May, and June,
that's usually enough rainfall to keep us
out of extreme drought through the rest of the year.
One route that we could take,
and this would be the worst possible route,
would be something similar to a setup like we got in 2011
where we just didn't get rains in the spring at all.
We were dry coming into April, May, and June,
and then April, May, and June failed us.
We didn't get those rains.
And at this point, that looks unlikely to be the pattern
that we would follow this year.
More likely, the pattern looks like
we'll have about average rainfall for April, May and June,
and that will set us up for more average-type conditions
for most of the state.
That'll prevail in--looks like it'll prevail in--
Central Texas and East Texas.
Now of course, all drought's local.
And so, our friends out west in West Texas,
Midland-Odessa area,
they're facing a pretty rough drought right now already,
even though in the rest of the state
things have eased off a bit.
One of the things that will impact us
in our April, May, and June rainfall
will be what's called La Niña conditions.
The Weather Service has been forecasting
drier than normal precipitation for us because of that.
La Niña is expected to break up this spring.
And that should get us back to average rainfall conditions.
The most recent seasonal drought outlook
from the National Weather Service
looking through the end of May
anticipates drought returning to all
but the eastern edge of Texas.
But with the expected breakup of La Niña conditions,
we should see more average rainfall
by the end of May and all of June.
That should be enough
to keep us out of a statewide drought scenario
similar to what we had in 2011.
It seems like there's almost always some part of our state
that's experiencing drought.
And so, it's unusual to get a weather system
that is wet and above average for the entire state.
So that means there will be pockets of drought
almost always, whether it be the tip of the Panhandle,
the tip of far West Texas.
When those areas are wet,
then there's a small area over in East Texas that's dry.
So, it's unusual for us to be entirely in drought,
and it's unusual for us to be entirely drought free.
That just comes from being a large state.