Shift from La Niña to El Niño could impact Texas weather patterns Posted on January 10, 2023
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Though the National Weather Service is forecasting a warmer and drier-than-normal start to 2023 for most of Texas, a change from a La Niña weather pattern to El Niño later in 2023 should result in big changes for our state. The predicted shift to El Niño conditions means that Texas could experience more moisture and rainfall. According to Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist at the Texas Water Development Board, “the months of April, May, and June historically bring a lot of rainfall to our state. And they're very important for us in terms of avoiding drought. If we can get some normal to above-normal rainfall during those months, that can help us stay out of drought during the coming summer months.” In the soundbites below, Dr. Wentzel shares more information about the possible transition and what that could mean for our state’s drought conditions.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board
"El Niño and La Niña, that whole cycle, that is really just looking at sea surface temperatures in a large area of the eastern Pacific. And that's quite a distance away from us. So, it wouldn't seem like it would have any relevance to us. But what it does is the temperature conditions in that part of the ocean sets up circulation patterns in the atmosphere, and those patterns are what bring us extra moisture from the Pacific. They’re patterns that may suppress hurricanes from coming to us from the Gulf. They may influence the jet stream that is bringing cool air down to us from the north. So, in combination, El Niño/La Niña influence weather patterns all over the globe, they mean different things to different people, different areas. But for us, La Niña conditions, the warmer temperatures in the eastern Pacific, those really correlate to warmer and drier winters than we would typically experience."