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Dr. Mark Wentzel – Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board’s latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of June.

Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines. Statewide, June was wetter and warmer than normal—the third consecutive month that conditions have been wetter than normal. Near the end of June, 32 percent of the state was in drought, down 25 percentage points since late May and down 57 percentage points since the end of March. Storage in our water supply reservoirs ended June at 77.1 percent of capacity, up one percentage point from the end of May, but still seven percentage points below normal for this time of year. 

Across Texas, drought conditions are expected to expand through the end of September, with hope for a return to drought contraction later in the fall. Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to 21st century averages for June. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. Statewide, June was wetter than normal and near-normal for temperature—that's the third consecutive month that precipitation has been more than normal. The eight previous months, August 2025 through March 2026, were drier and warmer than normal.

June conditions were favorable for drought improvement. During June, drought contracted 25 percentage points and covered less than a third of the state by the end of the month—the tan, orange, and red areas on this map. Exceptional drought, the most severe category shown in maroon in the legend, disappeared from the map for the first time since July 2024. But as we head into summer, about 15 percent of the state remains abnormally dry— shown in yellow on the map—and depending on conditions, could slip back into drought in the next few weeks. 

Statewide, surface water supplies increased one percentage point in June. In this chart, the dark line shows storage this year compared to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2025 and 2024, and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. June's increase was the third consecutive monthly increase, but still leaves us seven percentage points below normal for this time of year.

What can we expect heading into summer? Well, it might be the end of drought improvements for a while. In fact, the National Weather Service is predicting drought expansion across most of the state through the end of September. But looking a little farther out into the fall and winter, there’s reason for optimism. El Niño conditions—warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific—are in place and expected to persist into 2027. Those conditions typically bring Texas falls and winters that are cooler and wetter than normal and favorable to get Texas back into a pattern of drought improvement and contraction. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.