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Mark Wentzel – Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wenzel, a hydrologist in the surface water division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of January 2023. Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines.

January 2023 continued a recent pattern of above-average rainfall in parts of East Texas, with below-average precipitation in the rest of the state. Drought conditions have expanded from covering 49 percent of the state at the end of December to 54 percent at the end of January. Statewide, storage in our water supply reservoirs is 72.5 percent of capacity, about 10 percentage points below normal for this time of year. But both drought and water supply conditions are much improved in East Texas. 

Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation in January. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to what is considered normal for the month. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperatures on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. Despite an arctic event at the end of the month, temperatures were warmer than normal for most of the state in January. Most areas also had below-normal precipitation. But for the second month in a row, there were significant areas of East Texas that received above-normal precipitation. That extra rainfall in East Texas definitely had an impact. To see some of that impact, let's take a closer look at drought conditions across our state.

The current drought map for conditions as of January 31 shows 54 percent of the state impacted by drought, up five percentage points since the end of December. Drought is nearly eliminated from East Texas but expanding and intensifying in the rest of the state. From a water supply perspective, we're seeing additional evidence that drought is easing across East Texas. This graph shows combined storage for the 25 largest water supply reservoirs in the East Texas climate region. The darker line on the far left shows storage by day of the year for 2023 relative to 2022 and 2021, the lighter lines, and maximum median and minimum values since 1990. The red line shows conditions during 2011, the worst one-year drought in the last century. Over the first month of this year, water supply storage in the East Texas region increased almost five percentage points, equivalent to about half a million acre-feet of water. In comparison, reservoirs in the other nine climate regions in the state lost a combined water supply volume of about 50,000-acre feet for the month.

What can we expect over the next few months? The latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service is optimistic for northeast Texas. Through the end of April, that part of the state is expected to remain drought-free. Unfortunately, drought is expected to expand in the rest of the state. However, with the anticipated breakup of La Niña conditions later this year, there is some hope that the rest of Texas may see at least some easing of drought conditions as early as May. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.