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Dr. Mark Wentzel – Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board  

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather Report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of March 2022.

Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines. March was drier and cooler than normal for much of the state at the end of March. Drought conditions covered 88 percent of the state, the worst conditions this time of year since 2011 when 95 percent of the state was in drought. Storage in our water supply reservoirs is at 78 percent capacity, 6.5 percentage points less than normal for this time of year. Drought is expected to expand and intensify in Texas over the next few months. Temperature and precipitation have a direct impact on water supply and drought.

Let's take a closer look at these conditions in March. On these maps, we're looking at temperature and precipitation relative to what is considered normal for the month. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. Temperatures were cooler than normal for most of the state in March. But for the seventh month in a row, precipitation was below normal for most of the state. Those conditions led to the continued expansion and intensification of drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor map for conditions as of March 29 shows 88 percent of the state impacted by drought, up nine percentage points from the end of February. These are the worst drought conditions our state has experienced at the end of March since 2011 when 95 percent of the state was in drought.

Statewide, our water supply reservoirs are being impacted by the drier-than-normal conditions. The dark line on this chart shows how storage this year compares to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2021 and 2020. Water supply storage has been trending below normal for the time of year since late October last year. We began March about seven percentage points lower than normal for the time of year. After a small uptick beginning mid-month, we are now about six and a half percentage points lower-than-normal for the end of March.

Where are things headed in the next few months? Drought is expected to expand and intensify, according to the latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service. Drought will cover almost the entire state by the end of June. A big driver in that pessimistic outlook is continued La Niña conditions, which are now expected to persist well into summer. Fortunately for us, La Niña conditions are not as impactful on Texas as precipitation during the spring and summer as they are in the fall and winter. There is still a chance to get some meaningful rainfall in the next few months, April through June, and reduce the impact of drought on our state this summer. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.