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Dr. Mark Wentzel – Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a closer look at surface water supply conditions in our state near the end of November 2023.

This is the drought monitor map for conditions as of November 28. On this map, 43 percent of the state is in drought, the tan, orange, and red colors, down 22 percentage points from the end of October and 42 percentage points from early September. Despite the improvements on the landscape, our statewide surface water supply reservoirs haven't seen a lot of recovery yet. That's not unexpected. Compared to the landscape, our water supply systems take longer to respond to drought. At the onset of drought, water supply reservoir levels remain near normal, lagging conditions on the landscape. When the landscape recovers from drought, reservoir conditions again lag, typically taking a few additional months or more to return to normal levels.

Let's take a closer look at 20 surface water supply systems we monitor across the state. On this map, the number near each city is the difference between surface water supply storage on September 30 and what is considered normal for the time of year based on the last 30 years of data. The units are percentage points of total system capacity. The red negative numbers show systems that were below normal for the time of year. Black positive numbers show systems that were near or above normal. The systems most impacted by the recent drought have been clustered in Central and South Texas. Three systems, Amarillo, El Paso, and Lubbock, were relatively unimpacted. This is the same map for conditions as of October 31. Three systems, Dallas, Texarkana, and Waco, returned to normal or better water supply conditions in October. One system, El Paso, slipped slightly below normal for the time of year. And this is the same map for conditions as of November 28. El Paso is back to normal conditions. One additional system, Houston, has returned to normal conditions, but 13 water supply systems continue to experience below-normal conditions for the time of year. Thanks to El Niño conditions, which typically bring cooler and wetter winters to Texas, we are expecting continued improvements in coming months.

Which systems are most likely to improve next? I don't have a crystal ball, but based on favorable climatology, it's generally wetter in East Texas than West Texas. Seasonal forecasts from the National Weather Service, again favoring the eastern half of the state, proximity of current conditions to normal, and recent trends in storage, some systems seem more likely to get back to normal in the next few months. My best guesses are Beaumont-Port Arthur, Fort Worth, Nacogdoches, and Tyler. For the remaining systems, recovery may take longer, perhaps until April, May, or June of 2024, or even longer. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe and see some improvements in your water supply systems.