Water + Weather for June 2023 Posted on July 11, 2023
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Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board
Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board’s latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the surface water division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of June 2023. Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines.
June was hotter and drier than normal for most of the state. At the end of June, 24 percent of the state was in drought, with another 45 percent in danger of slipping back into drought in coming weeks. Statewide, storage in our water supply reservoirs is about 77 percent of capacity—higher than last year, but still about 8 percentage points below normal for this time of year. Further widespread drought improvements aren't expected until the fall.
Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to what is considered normal for June. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperatures on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. June was an abrupt change from April and May, bringing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation to most of the state. The northern Panhandle, however, continued to experience cooler and wetter-than-normal conditions.
Thanks to May rainfall, drought continued to contract across the state in early June, but by the end of June, drought recovery had stalled. The drought map for conditions as of June 27 shows 24 percent of the state impacted by drought, down 10 percentage points since the end of May. But 45 percent of the state is abnormally dry, the area shown in yellow on the map. If hot, dry conditions continue, those areas are in danger of slipping back into drought in coming weeks.
Conditions in our water supply reservoirs were relatively unchanged in June. The dark line on this chart shows how storage in our water supply reservoirs this year compares to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2022 and 2021 and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. During the month of June, storage reached its highest value in a year, 77.5 percent of capacity, before declining by the end of the month. As we end June, statewide surface water supplies are 1 ½ percentage points higher than they were last year but still about 8 percentage points less than normal for this time of year.
Conditions do vary considerably across the state. Water supply reservoirs for Lubbock and Amarillo in the Panhandle are seeing their highest end-of-June volumes in 20 years. Meanwhile, reservoirs for Waco and Temple/Killeen in Central Texas are seeing their lowest end-of-June volumes in 30 years. What can we expect over the next few months? The latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service anticipates that drought will expand to cover most of central, southern, and West Texas by the end of September.
On a longer time frame, the recent switch to El Niño conditions, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, bodes well for Texas. Those conditions, expected to linger into next year, typically bring our state cooler and wetter-than-normal conditions during the fall and winter.
Bottom line? Drought conditions are expected to expand over the summer before we get widespread drought relief in the fall and winter. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope y’all stay healthy and safe.