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Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of September. Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines.

Statewide, September 2026 was drier than normal and set the record for the hottest September in data going back to 1895. Near the end of September, 92 percent of the state was in drought, up 13 percentage points since the beginning of the month. Storage in our water supply reservoirs ended the month at 71.2 percent of capacity, down 3 percentage points during the month and leaving us more than 8 percentage points below normal for this time of year. Through the end of December, conditions are expected to improve across the state, cutting drought area significantly by the end of the year.

Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to 21st century averages for September. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. Statewide, the average temperature for September 2026 was 84.1° Fahrenheit. That set the record for the warmest September in data going back to 1895, breaking the previous record set in 2023 by more than two degrees.

Across the state, precipitation for September 2026 was about 60 percent of normal. Monsoon flow from the Pacific brought above-average precipitation to large portions of the Panhandle and West Texas, and remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard did the same for part of East Texas. Much of the rest of the state got less than half their normal rainfall for the month.

Overall, drought expanded 13 percentage points during September and covered 92 percent of the state near the end of the month––the tan, orange, and red areas on this map. That's the largest extent of drought within the state in four years. The most severely impacted areas were clustered in the Panhandle and near the Red River Valley in the north, and the lower coast in the south.

September conditions also led to a three-percentage-point decline in statewide surface water supplies during the month. On this chart, the dark line shows statewide storage this year compared to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2025 and 2024, and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. At the end of September 2026, surface water supplies were more than eight percentage points below normal for the time of year.

What can we expect going forward? Through the end of December, the National Weather Service is predicting drought improvement across the state. For about half the state, those improvements are expected to be enough to eliminate drought. For the rest of the state, more improvements will be needed in 2027 before they transition completely out of drought, but there is good reason to expect that to happen. El Niño conditions––warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific––are in place and expected to persist well into next year. El Niño winters typically bring Texas cooler and wetter conditions, which would be ideal for further drought contraction in our state during at least the first few months of the new year. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.